The Department of Economics (MGSHSS) is organising a talk of Brown Bag series titled "Forecasts: Consumption, Production, and Behavioral Responses"
Venue: A-16, Academic Block
Date: Friday 4th October, 2019
Time: 3:00 PM
Husain F. Ahmad (Sewanee: The University of the South), Matthew Gibson (Williams College), Fatiq Nadeem (Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives), Sanval Nasim (Lahore University of Management Sciences), Arman Rezaee (University of California, Davis)
Economic theory predicts that forecasts are an important determinant of welfare. In developing countries however, agents may have difficulty forming accurate, precise forecasts because of limited information and human capital. This plausibly limits the scope for optimal responses to uncertain future events. We study the effect of two randomized interventions on forecast formation and behavioral responses. The first is the provision of day-ahead air pollution forecasts. The second is training in forecasting techniques aimed at reducing behavioral biases. We estimate impacts on forecast error in air pollution and travel times. Measured responses include willingness to pay for protective face masks and changes in time use. We examine effects on proxies for the variance of utility, which broadly reflects forecasting and responses to uncertainty. Finally we elicit willingness to pay for our forecasts, an important input to cost-benefit analysis of air pollution monitoring.
Dr. Sanval Nasim is an Assistant Professor of economics at the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS).
His primary field of research is environmental and natural resource economics. His work includes behavioral experiments on air pollution forecasts, optimal control modelling of water resources, and cost-benefit analysis of clean technology adoption. He obtained his Ph.D. in environmental and natural resource economics from the University of California Riverside in 2015 and a BA in economics, mathematics, and history from Colby College in 2008.